NFL · Week 7 · Oct 22–26, 2026
Sides. Totals. Where our number and the market split.
Thursday night is New England at Chicago, and we are not on it. Sunday and Monday stay at Med until the weekend check. Lines can still move. No likely winner this week.
Three Med sides. A close win is not a reason to lay a bigger number. When two teams had the same result against the same opponent, neither side is on the card.
Seattle is −2.5. Denver and the Chargers are the common opponents. Kansas City won those by 21 and 16. Seattle lost to Denver by 3 and beat the Chargers by 7. The Chiefs also have wins by 3, against Indianapolis and Las Vegas. That supports taking the points. It does not support laying 4. Sunday, so Med.
Sun 8:20 · NBC · SEA −2.5
The losses are by 22, 14, 14, 7, and 5. The Jets beat Cleveland by 5 and Tennessee by 13. They also lost to Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, and New England. Breece Hall is questionable and Adonai Mitchell is doubtful. That is a small lay, and the Jets are 2–4, so it stays Med.
San Francisco is 6–0. The last three wins are by 10, 3, and 6. Atlanta is 2–4. Deebo is out. A three-point win does not support laying more than 3. Sunday, so Med.
| Game | When | Market | Fair | Play | Edge | Conf | Open → now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF (6-0) at ATL (2-4) | Sun 1:00 | SF −3 | SF −7.6 | SF −3 | +4.6 | Med | unchanged |
| MIA (0-5) at NYJ (2-4) | Sun 1:00 | NYJ −4.5 | NYJ −10.2 | NYJ −4.5 | +5.7 | Med | unchanged |
| KC (5-0) at SEA (3-3) | Sun 8:20 | SEA −2.5 | KC −4.2 | KC +2.5 | +6.7 | Med | unchanged |
Minnesota’s last three wins are by 7, 5, and 10. The five-point win does not support laying 6.5. Carolina and Tampa Bay both lost to Cleveland by a field goal. Houston −10 is a fair number closer to 5, and the Dallas and Tennessee splits flip. Denver and Arizona split the Rams and both lost to San Francisco. The Rams and the Raiders both lost to Buffalo by 3, and Las Vegas has lost three straight. Philadelphia lost by 11 last week, and Hurts is on injured reserve. Two points is not a card.
None this week. Straight-up wins, and only when the moneyline is the better price. A team already on the side card stays there.
Pittsburgh’s moneyline is shorter than the win. Minnesota is −290, and Addison, Hockenson, and Darrisaw are questionable. Kansas City, the Jets, and San Francisco are already sides. Las Vegas has lost three straight, so they are not a likely winner. Carolina and Tampa Bay had the same result against Cleveland, so neither is. The Giants were better against Dallas, and Houston was better against Tennessee, so neither is a likely winner.
No total. If a recent game already blew past the number, the under stays off, even when our number is five points away.
The rest of the slate is inside two points, or a recent game already went the other way.
One receiving over. The usage and the way the game should go have to point the same way.
120 a game, and about a third of the targets. Seattle is the trailer on our side, so the receiving over is the script. Kansas City has allowed 224 passing yards and one game of 270 or more. That is not enough to fade the over, and it is not enough to call this high.
Sun 8:20 · NBC · KC at SEA
Kenneth Walker is at 133, on 76% of the rushes, and Seattle allows 97 on the ground against a line of 87.5. That is not the pick. Bryce Young is at 310 against 251.5, and Carolina is the team we have ahead, so the over is the wrong call. Kyler Murray’s under is off because Indianapolis has already allowed two 270-yard games. Mahomes is at 262 against 221.5, and the leader’s over is the wrong call. Olave is off because of the gusts and the rain in Paris. Touchdown, kicking, and defensive prices are on the pick calculator. They are not picks.