NFL · Week 5 · Oct 11–12, 2026
Sides. Totals. Where the number is wrong.
Saturday card. Thursday finished Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16, and there was no play on it. Lamar Jackson is out, and Atlanta −3 already has that. Houston is back to −7. The new side is Giants +3.5. No total cleared.
Five Sunday sides, all Med. A win against a weaker side does not become a lay. A line that already ran to us does not become high. Tennessee’s receiver and the Raiders’ back are taxes, not voids.
The Raiders lost to Kansas City by 3 and beat Miami, the Chargers, and New Orleans. New England lost to Jacksonville by 29. The number that travels is about Raiders −3. It opened Patriots −8.5 and is still −3.5. Five points of that move already happened, so this stays Med. Jeanty is questionable and expected to try. That does not pull the gap under 2.
Sun 1:00 · CBS · NE −3.5
Houston has lost by 5, 14, 2, and 4. Tennessee has lost every week too. Those Houston margins do not travel into laying 7 in Nashville. The dog opened at +3.5 and is +7 now. That move is away from us. On 7, so there is nothing to buy. Tate is questionable, which keeps this Med.
Detroit’s wins are by 1 against New Orleans and by 7 against the Jets. They lost to Carolina. That is not a 5.5-point favorite. Opened −8.5, still −5.5. The roof in Glendale should be shut. That does not make the total a play.
Both teams played Arizona. Seattle won that game by 24. San Francisco won it by 6. The split does not support laying with the 49ers, and it does not make the dog high. It does support +3 on a team that has won every week by at least 6. Was +2.5. Already on 3.
Nabers and Skattebo are playing. Diggs is out. The Giants beat Dallas by 8. Washington lost that game by 17. That does not travel into laying 3.5. The fair number is a pick. McLaurin is a game-time decision, which does not raise Washington’s number.
| Game | When | Market | Fair | Play | Edge | Conf | Open → now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV (3-1) at NE (2-2) | Sun 1:00 | NE −3.5 | LV −3 | LV +3.5 | +6.5 | Med | NE −8.5 → −3.5 |
| HOU (0-4) at TEN (0-4) | Sun 1:00 | HOU −7 | HOU −3 | TEN +7 | +4.0 | Med | HOU −3.5 → −7 |
| DET (2-2) at ARI (1-3) | Sun 4:25 | DET −5.5 | DET −1.5 | ARI +5.5 | +4.0 | Med | DET −8.5 → −5.5 |
| SF (4-0) at SEA (3-1) | Sun 4:25 | SEA −3 | SF −1 | SF +3 | +4.0 | Med | SEA −3.5 → −3 |
| NYG (3-1) at WSH (1-3) | Sun 1:00 | WSH −3.5 | PK | NYG +3.5 | +3.5 | Med | WSH −2.5 → −3.5 |
Jacksonville laying 7.5 is a point short, and the number already ran from Eagles −2.5. Barkley and Smith are out. That move is the injury. Chicago lost to Minnesota 3–9, Caleb Williams was limited and is questionable, and Monangai is out. Minnesota’s last three wins were by 6, 7, and 5, with Jefferson and Addison questionable. Breece Hall is out and the Jets are only laying 2.5. Denver’s wins are by 7 and 4, and the line already flipped off the Chargers. Monday is still a pick against Rams −3.
No total is on the card. A gap of a few points is not enough when the recent games already cleared the number, or when the line already fell into the weather.
The rest of the slate is inside two points. MetLife has rain too, and the Jets total is 39.5. That does not create a side or a total.
Same Wednesday yard lines. One skill player per offense. The share and the other defense still have to agree. Nothing here is high off a season rate.
144 a game against 220, on about 63% of the attempts. Minnesota is the favorite, so the under is the script. New Orleans has allowed 228 and has not had a 270-yard passer. Jefferson and Addison were at practice and are still questionable. The side stays off.
MIN at NO · Sun 1:00 · Med
Mariota is out, so this is Daniels’ game. 130 a game against 200. The Giants have allowed 212 pass yards and cleared 270 once. Rain in Landover helps the under. Diggs is out. McLaurin being a game-time decision does not push the number up.
124 yards a game and 63% of Atlanta’s carries. Lamar is out and the market is Atlanta −3, so the game sits on the ground. Baltimore has allowed 100 rush yards a game. Med, not a season-average smash. The side stays off.
| Player | Mkt | Line | Pace | Play | Gap | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray · MIN at NO | Pass | 220 | 144 | Under 220 | +76 | Med |
| Jayden Daniels · NYG at WSH | Pass | 200 | 130 | Under 200 | +70 | Med |
| Bijan Robinson · BAL at ATL | Rush | 90 | 124 | Over 90 | +34 | Med |
Still off: Lamb’s 101 a game is a 28% target share. Olave’s 123 is the same kind of share against a Minnesota defense that has allowed 220. Stroud’s 285 is into a Titans defense that has allowed 220 and has not cleared 270. Cook is 105 a game at 67% of the carries, but Monday is not a Buffalo script. Gibbs is 88 against a 93. Shough’s 301 is into a defense that has allowed 220. Pass unders into a defense that has already cleared 270 twice stay off.
Unpriced. Usage, not a second yard bet.
63% of the rushes in the game we have as a run script. The yard over is the card. The score is the same work.
78% of the carries and six scores. The side is a pass. The red-zone share is not.
67% of the rushes on Monday. The side is a pick. The carries are still his.
83% of the rushes even though the points are Arizona. The work does not move with the side.