NFL · Week 4 · Oct 4–5, 2026
Sides. Totals. Where the number is wrong.
Sunday morning check. Thursday closed Browns 27, Steelers 24. London has already kicked, so Washington +4.5 is locked. The only unplayed number that moved is Charlotte: the rain is gone and the total is back to 51.5. No priced prop changed.
Two or more points after the injury tax. High means the gap is still there and the number has not already run to us. A questionable skill player is a tax. An out quarterback or lead skill player rebuilds the number.
Jayden Daniels is out. Marcus Mariota has been the better half of the dropbacks, and he is in the game. Terry McLaurin is out (23% of the targets). Keenan Allen is out on the other side (21%). Those two outs offset the questionable tags from Friday, so the number stays Med. Indianapolis is laying 4.5 on a defense that has given up 291 pass yards a game. The +4.5 is locked.
Sun 9:30 · London · in progress · IND −4.5
Jacksonville has been the better side, and Cincinnati −2.5 is the same number it opened. Cincinnati has given up 287 pass yards a game and two 270-yard games — that is why the under is Low and the dog is not. Buy onto +3 if the juice is ordinary.
DeVonta Smith had a third of Philadelphia’s targets. Dallas Goedert is out with him. Thursday this was a point and a half short of a play. The line only moved from −3 to −3.5. We want about Rams −7. The open was −1.5, so it stays Med.
| Game | When | Market | Fair | Play | Edge | Conf | Open → now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND (1-2) at WSH (1-2) | Sun 9:30 · London | IND −4.5 | WSH −4 | WSH +4.5 | +8.5 | Med | WSH −1.5 → IND −4.5 |
| DET (2-1) at CAR (1-2) | Sun 8:20 · NBC | DET −3.5 | CAR −4 | CAR +3.5 | +7.5 | Med | DET −3 → −3.5 |
| JAX (2-1) at CIN (2-1) | Sun 1:00 · CBS | CIN −2.5 | JAX −2 | JAX +2.5 | +4.5 | High | CIN −2.5 → −2.5 |
| GB (1-2) at TB (0-3) | Sun 1:00 · FOX | GB −3 | GB −7 | GB −3 | +4.0 | Med | GB −1.5 → −3 |
| DEN (2-1) at SF (3-0) | Sun 4:25 · CBS | SF −3 | SF −7 | SF −3 | +4.0 | Med | SF −2.5 → −3 |
| LAR (1-2) at PHI (2-1) | Sun 1:00 · FOX | LAR −3.5 | LAR −7 | LAR −3.5 | +3.5 | Med | LAR −1.5 → −3.5 |
| KC (3-0) at LV (3-0) | Sun 4:25 · CBS | KC −4.5 | KC −1 | LV +4.5 | +3.5 | Med | KC −5.5 → −4.5 |
| NE (1-2) at BUF (3-0) | Sun 1:00 · CBS | BUF −7 | BUF −10.5 | BUF −7 | +3.5 | Low | BUF −3 → −7 |
| DAL (1-2) at HOU (0-3) | Sun 1:00 · FOX | HOU −3 | Pick | DAL +3 | +3.0 | Med | HOU −2.5 → −3 |
| ARI (1-2) at NYG (2-1) | Sun 1:00 · CBS | ARI −2.5 | Pick | NYG +2.5 | +2.5 | Low | NYG −7 → ARI −2.5 |
| ATL (1-2) at NO (1-2) | Mon 8:15 · ESPN | NO −1.5 | NO −3.5 | Pass the side | +2.0 | — | NO −2.5 → −1.5 |
Off the card: Seattle −7 (Jadarian Price had 35% of the rushes and is out, and the line already ran from −3 to −7). Minnesota −10 (Justin Jefferson is out, and it had already steamed from −7.5). Chicago stays a pass — Caleb Williams is out, but Case Keenum’s dropbacks have matched him, and Breece Hall is out on the other side. Lamar Jackson is playing. Zay Flowers is questionable, which is why Baltimore −11.5 is still not a side. Carolina stays Med because Jalen Coker is questionable. San Francisco stays Med because Mike Evans is questionable and the three-game gap is too loud to lay as a high. Sunday morning did not flip another skill player or quarterback on an unplayed game. New Orleans −1.5 is a one-point move. That does not create a side.
A defense that has already given up 270 twice taxes an under, even when the gap is wide. Rain counts. A total that has already crashed toward the under is not an over.
The number we want is 43.5. Houston has given up 259 pass yards a game and cleared 270 once, not twice. The total ticked up, so the under is not late. No weather tax indoors.
Sun 1:00 · FOX · HOU −3 / 48.5
The rain flag is off. That puts a point and a half back on the number we want, about 46. The market is 51.5. Detroit has still given up 326 pass yards a game and two 270-yard games, so it stays Low.
Both defenses have given up about 290 pass yards a game and two 270-yard games. The side can be Washington. The under cannot.
| Game | When | Market | Fair | Play | Edge | Conf | Open → now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at HOU | Sun 1:00 | 48.5 | 43.5 | Under 48.5 | +5.0 | High | 47.5 → 48.5 |
| DET at CAR | Sun 8:20 | 51.5 | 46.0 | Under 51.5 | +5.5 | Low | 45.5 → 51.5 |
| NE at BUF | Sun 1:00 | 49.5 | 44.5 | Under 49.5 | +5.0 | Low | 49.5 → 49.5 |
| JAX at CIN | Sun 1:00 | 51.5 | 47.0 | Under 51.5 | +4.5 | Low | 51.5 → 51.5 |
| ATL at NO | Mon 8:15 | 47.5 | 44.0 | Under 47.5 | +3.5 | Low | 45.5 → 47.5 |
| ARI at NYG | Sun 1:00 | 44.5 | 42.5 | Under 44.5 | +2.0 | Low | 45.5 → 44.5 |
Philadelphia’s rain flag is off, and Smith being out still does not make 42.5 a play. San Francisco 48.5 is a move, not a new over. Green Bay–Tampa, Miami–Minnesota, and Tennessee–Baltimore have already crashed. Those overs stay off. Buffalo’s under stays Low: they have given up 276 pass yards a game and two 270-yard games. Monday’s under gives back a point because Elliss, Granderson, and Jennings are out. It stays Low.
Same yard lines as the card. Sunday morning did not rule out Smith-Njigba, Walker, Prescott, Olave, Kelce, Cook, Lamb, Higgins, Mahomes, Watson, or Golden. A leaky pass defense still kills a volume under.
135 yards a game and 38% of Seattle’s targets. The Chargers have given up 245 pass yards a game. Price being out does not take the ball away from him. Med, because the yard line was not re-checked tonight.
SEA vs LAC · Sun 4:25 · Med
120 a game and 73% of the carries. Las Vegas has allowed 116 rush yards a game. Week 3’s over still lost at 70. The Raiders getting points is not a smash script. The 90 is still light.
243 a game against 280. Houston has allowed 259 and cleared 270 once. The under is on the right side of that unit.
| Player | Mkt | Line | Pace | Play | Gap | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA vs LAC | Rec | 93 | 135 | Over 93 | +42 | Med |
| Dak Prescott · DAL at HOU | Pass | 280 | 243 | Under 280 | +37 | Med |
| Chris Olave · NO vs ATL | Rec | 90 | 125 | Over 90 | +35 | Med |
| Kenneth Walker III · KC at LV | Rush | 90 | 120 | Over 90 | +30 | Med |
| Travis Kelce · KC at LV | Rec | 50 | 77 | Over 50 | +27 | Med |
| James Cook · BUF vs NE | Rush | 90 | 115 | Over 90 | +25 | Med |
| CeeDee Lamb · DAL at HOU | Rec | 80 | 103 | Over 80 | +23 | Med |
| Tee Higgins · CIN vs JAX | Rec | 61 | 81 | Over 61 | +20 | Med |
| Christian Watson · GB at TB | Rec | 70 | 95 | Over 70 | +25 | Low |
| Matthew Golden · GB at TB | Rec | 60 | 84 | Over 60 | +24 | Low |
Still off: pass unders into defenses that have already cleared 270 twice. Love and Stafford overs stay off the wrong side of a tight pass defense. Olave is Monday — Atlanta has given up 273 pass yards a game, and he was not on the injury report.
Unpriced. Usage plus the sides already on the card.
63% of the rushes in a game we have Carolina as the fair favorite.
73% of the carries. Less of a smash script if the Raiders cover, but the work is his.
38% of the targets and six receiving scores. The side is a pass. The usage is not.
46% of the rushes and 21% of the targets. Evans being questionable does not take his work.
68% of the rushes at home. Ray Davis is questionable behind him, not instead of him.
80% of the rushes even though the side is Carolina. The red-zone work is still his.