NFL · Week 6 · Oct 15–19, 2026
Sides. Totals. Where the number is wrong.
Friday check. Thursday finished Denver 17, Seattle 14, and it was not a play. Lamar Jackson is out, Baker Mayfield is out, and Josh Jacobs is out. The Raiders and Jets came off, because the number had already run toward us and a taxed side does not stay low. The spread card is unchanged. Nothing on that card is marked high. Winners are a separate list, and that call ignores the price.
Two Med sides. A win by 3 does not become a lay of 7. A line that already ran to us does not stay on the card as Low.
The Giants beat Dallas by 8, Tennessee by 5, and Arizona by 12, and they tied Washington. They lost to the Rams by 22. That supports not losing to a 1–4 Saints team. It does not support laying 5. It opened Giants −2.5 and is +1.5 now.
Sun 1:00 · Fox · NO −1.5
Jacksonville beat Cincinnati by 5. Houston lost that game by 14. That is a small lay, not a touchdown. The last Jacksonville win was by 2, against Philadelphia, so this stays Med. It opened Houston −1.5. London.
| Game | When | Market | Fair | Play | Edge | Conf | Open → now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO (1-4) at NYG (3-1-1) | Sun 1:00 | NO −1.5 | NYG −5 | NYG +1.5 | +6.5 | Med | NYG −2.5 → NO −1.5 |
| HOU (1-4) at JAX (4-1) | Sun 9:30 · London | JAX −2.5 | JAX −6 | JAX −2.5 | +3.5 | Med | HOU −1.5 → JAX −2.5 |
Chicago and Atlanta split Carolina and Green Bay, and Caleb Williams is still questionable. Lamar Jackson is out, so the old Baltimore number does not travel and the line is −3. Indianapolis −7 is two points, with a split against Baltimore and Houston. Carolina −3.5 already flipped ten points from Philadelphia −6.5. Mayfield is out and the wind in Tampa is 15. Kansas City’s wins by 3 do not travel into laying 7.5. San Francisco’s last win was by 3. Green Bay −1.5 is a point and a half short, and Jacobs is out. Buffalo moved from −6.5 to −4.5, two points toward a pick. New England moved from −9.5 to −7.5, and the number that travels is −3.
Who wins the game. The spread is not an input. A three-point win counts here and stays off a lay. One High. The rest are Med or Low.
The Chiefs are 4–0. The wins are by 21, 14, 3, and 3. Those three-point wins are why the lay stays off the card. They are still wins. The Chargers are 0–5. Rice is out, and that does not make Los Angeles the better team.
Sun 4:25 · CBS · LAC at KC
Arizona’s losses include 24, 24, and 12. The Rams just lost to Denver, Philadelphia, and Buffalo by 4, 4, and 3. That keeps this Med. We are not laying 12.5.
The last three wins are by 6, 10, and 3. Deebo is out and Evans is questionable, so this stays Med. Monday. The lay is a different question.
Hurts is on injured reserve and Barkley is out. Carolina beat Detroit by 6 and lost to Cleveland by 3, so this is Med. The spread already flipped. That price is not this pick.
| Game | When | Fair | Play | Margin | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC (0-5) at KC (4-0) | Sun 4:25 | KC by 14 | KC | 14 | High |
| ARI (1-4) at LAR (2-3) | Sun 4:05 | LAR by 11 | LAR | 11 | Med |
| WSH (1-3-1) at SF (5-0) | Mon 8:15 | SF by 10 | SF | 10 | Med |
| CAR (2-2) at PHI (2-3) | Sun 1:00 | CAR by 7 | CAR | 7 | Med |
| HOU (1-4) at JAX (4-1) | Sun 9:30 · London | JAX by 6 | JAX | 6 | Med |
| NO (1-4) at NYG (3-1-1) | Sun 1:00 | NYG by 5 | NYG | 5 | Med |
| TEN (0-5) at IND (2-3) | Sun 1:00 | IND by 5 | IND | 5 | Med |
| PIT (3-2) at TB (1-4) | Sun 1:00 | PIT | PIT | 3 | Med |
| NYJ (2-3) at NE (3-2) | Sun 1:00 | NE by 3 | NE | 3 | Low |
| DAL (2-3) at GB (3-2) | Sun 8:20 | GB by 3 | GB | 3 | Low |
Chicago and Atlanta split Carolina and Green Bay, so neither win travels. Lamar is out, and Cleveland does not get the win without a rate of their own. Buffalo and the Raiders are a pick. The price on that game is not a winner.
No total is on the card. A gap of a few points is not enough when the recent games already cleared the number, or when the line already fell into the wind.
The rest of the slate is inside two points.
Wednesday yard lines. One skill player per offense. The share and the script have to agree, and the other defense cannot already have cleared the number. Nothing here is high off a season rate.
201 a game in the four he has played, against 229.5. Dart is out, so the old split does not price this week. The Giants are the side on the card, so the under is the script. New Orleans has allowed 228 and has not had a 270-yard passer. One 326-yard game is already inside the 201.
NO at NYG · Sun 1:00 · Med
76% of Kansas City’s carries, and the market has them laying. The Chargers have allowed 120 rush yards a game. Med, not a 134-yard season smash. The side stays off.
204 a game, on every attempt, against 239.5. Indianapolis is the favorite, so the under is the script. Tennessee has allowed 229 and has not had a 270-yard passer. The side stays off.
104 a game in the three he has played, against 79.5. The Raiders are the trailer, so the catch over is the script. Buffalo has allowed 296 and has had three 270-yard games. One receiver.
280 a game against 259.5. Houston is the trailer in London, so the over is the script. Jacksonville has allowed 277 and has had two 270-yard games, which does not take the over off.
| Player | Mkt | Line | Pace | Play | Gap | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker · LAC at KC | Rush | 89.5 | 134 | Over 89.5 | +45 | Med |
| Daniel Jones · TEN at IND | Pass | 239.5 | 204 | Under 239.5 | +35 | Med |
| Jameis Winston · NO at NYG | Pass | 229.5 | 201 | Under 229.5 | +28 | Med |
| Brock Bowers · BUF at LV | Rec | 79.5 | 104 | Over 79.5 | +24 | Med |
| C.J. Stroud · HOU at JAX | Pass | 259.5 | 280 | Over 259.5 | +21 | Med |
Still off: Darnold’s 151 is a 68% share, which prices the 220. Young’s 317 is into a defense that has already cleared 270 twice. Lamb’s 101 is a 28% share into a defense that has allowed 199 and has not had a 270-yard game. Olave’s 107 is into a defense that has allowed 210. Bijan’s 116 is the season rate with Penix questionable. Smith-Njigba is questionable, and Seattle is the favorite. Mahomes at 259 is the wrong side of a Kansas City lay.
Unpriced. Usage, not a second yard bet.
76% of the rushes in the game we have as a run script. The yard over is the card. The score is the same work.
75% of the carries and six scores. The side is a pass. The red-zone share is not.
57% of the rushes on the side that is on the card. The pass under is Winston. The carries are still his.
67% of the rushes. The side is the Raiders. The carries do not move with that number.