NFL · Sep 27–28, 2026
Sides. Totals. Where the number is wrong.
Yahoo lines versus a shrunk two-game power rating, week 1–2 scores, ESPN unit stats, injury reports, and this morning’s pass-yard and receiving props. Atlanta 35–14 at Green Bay on Thursday is already final and is off this board. Two-game sample — this is a number hunt, not a lock list.
Fair spread is a shrunk net-points rating plus 2.2 home-field, except Baltimore–Dallas in Rio (neutral). Value is the side where Yahoo is two or more points short.
Detroit has allowed 35.5 points and 457.5 yards per game. The Jets have allowed 15.0 and 197 — best yardage defense in the sample. The Lions’ tape is an OT win over New Orleans and a 41–31 loss at Buffalo. That is not a 6.5-point home-favorite profile. Fair is about DET −1.
Sun 1:00 · FOX · DET −6.5 / 48.5
Washington is 0–2 even with him. Mariota is priced at 170 pass yards. Seattle allows 8.5 points per game and Smith-Njigba is the league receiving leader. Fair is closer to SEA −12.
San Francisco is +21 in net points and has allowed 10.0 per game. Arizona scored 7 last week. Bosa being out is already in 8.5. Fair is about SF −13.
| Game | When | Market | Fair | Play | Edge | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ (1-1) at DET (1-1) | Sun 1:00 · FOX | DET −6.5 | DET −1 | NYJ +6.5 | +5.5 | High |
| SEA (2-0) at WAS (0-2) | Sun 1:00 · FOX | SEA −7.5 | SEA −12 | SEA −7.5 | +4.5 | High |
| ARI (1-1) at SF (2-0) | Sun 4:05 · FOX | SF −8.5 | SF −13 | SF −8.5 | +4.5 | High |
| LAC (0-2) at BUF (2-0) | Sun 1:00 · FOX | BUF −7 | BUF −11 | BUF −7 | +4.0 | Med |
| LAR (1-1) at DEN (1-1) | Sun 8:20 · NBC | LAR −2.5 | DEN −1 | DEN +2.5 | +3.5 | Med |
| PHI (2-0) at CHI (1-1) | Mon 8:15 · ESPN | PHI −3.5 | Pick | CHI +3.5 | +3.5 | Med |
| HOU (0-2) at IND (0-2) | Sun 1:00 · CBS | HOU −1.5 | IND −1 | IND +1.5 | +2.5 | Med |
| KC (2-0) at MIA (0-2) | Sun 1:00 · CBS | KC −10 | KC −12.5 | KC −10 | +2.5 | Med |
| MIN (2-0) at TB (0-2) | Sun 4:05 · FOX | MIN −1.5 | MIN −4 | MIN −1.5 | +2.5 | Med |
| TEN (0-2) at NYG (1-1) | Sun 1:00 · CBS | NYG −2.5 | Pick | TEN +2.5 | +2.5 | Med |
| LV (2-0) at NO (1-1) | Sun 4:25 · CBS | NO −3 | NO −1 | LV +3 | +2.0 | Low |
| CAR (1-1) at CLE (1-1) | Sun 1:00 · FOX | CAR −2.5 | CAR −3.5 | CAR −2.5 | +1.0 | Low |
| BAL (1-1) vs DAL (1-1) | Sun 4:25 · Rio | BAL −3.5 | BAL −2.5 | Pass the side | +1.0 | Low |
Yahoo’s week-3 cards mis-label a few records. Actual scores: Carolina is 1–1 (lost 59–37 to Chicago, won 34–3 at Atlanta), Washington is 0–2, New England is 1–1, Indianapolis is 0–2. DEN +2.5 is contingent on Nacua sitting — he is not on this morning’s receiving board.
Fair total is a 50% shrink of combined points-per-game toward a 44-point league baseline, then adjusted for quarterbacks and injuries and checked against this morning’s pass-yard lines. The board is an under board. The one real over is Indianapolis.
New England has totaled 23 and 23. They score 15.0 and allow 8.0. Jacksonville’s 46.5 is hanging off a 34–10 versus Cleveland; they scored 13 at Denver. Maye and Lawrence are both 230 — yards, not points. Maye is 1 TD / 4 INT.
Sun 1:00 · CBS · prior totals NE 23, 23 · JAX 44, 33
Daniels is out. Washington’s 46 and 57 totals were with him. Mariota 170. Seattle allows 8.5 points per game. Fair is about 36.
Indianapolis has totaled 64 and 63 and allows 37.0 points per game. Collins is out, so this is not a smash, but 42.5 fades that tape too hard. Stroud 240, Jones 220, Taylor already has 4 rushing TDs.
| Game | When | Market | Fair | Play | Edge | Conf | W1–W2 totals | QB lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at JAX | Sun 1:00 | 46.5 | 41.0 | Under 46.5 | +5.5 | High | NE 23, 23 · JAX 44, 33 | Maye 230 · Lawrence 230 |
| SEA at WAS | Sun 1:00 | 40.5 | 36.0 | Under 40.5 | +4.5 | High | SEA 23, 38 · WAS 46, 57 | Darnold 230 · Mariota 170 |
| ARI at SF | Sun 4:05 | 47.5 | 43.0 | Under 47.5 | +4.5 | High | ARI 40, 38 · SF 34, 48 | Brissett 230 · Purdy 240 |
| LAR at DEN | Sun 8:20 | 44.5 | 40.0 | Under 44.5 | +4.5 | High | LAR 34, 34 · DEN 41, 33 | Stafford 250 · Nix 220 |
| HOU at IND | Sun 1:00 | 42.5 | 46.5 | Over 42.5 | +4.0 | Med | HOU 67, 26 · IND 64, 63 | Stroud 240 · Jones 220 |
| CAR at CLE | Sun 1:00 | 42.5 | 45.5 | Over 42.5 | +3.0 | Med | CAR 96, 37 · CLE 44, 42 | Young 230 · Watson 190 |
| CIN at PIT | Sun 1:00 | 42.5 | 40.0 | Under 42.5 | +2.5 | Med | CIN 60, 26 · PIT 33, 23 | Burrow 260 · Rodgers 222 |
| PHI at CHI | Mon 8:15 | 42.5 | 40.0 | Under 42.5 | +2.5 | Med | PHI 46, 44 · CHI 96, 12 | Hurts 220 · Bagent 180 |
| TEN at NYG | Sun 1:00 | 37.5 | 36.0 | Under 37.5 | +1.5 | Low | TEN 33, 44 · NYG 48, 34 | Ward 180 · Winston 200 |
| BAL vs DAL | Sun 4:25 · Rio | 53.5 | 55.0 | Over 53.5 | +1.5 | Med | BAL 64, 41 · DAL 48, 57 | Jackson 250 · Prescott 270 |
| MIN at TB | Sun 4:05 | 42.5 | 44.0 | Over 42.5 | +1.5 | Low | MIN 61, 12 · TB 60, 42 | Murray 220 · Mayfield 220 |
| LV at NO | Sun 4:25 | 43.5 | 45.0 | Over 43.5 | +1.5 | Low | LV 40, 40 · NO 61, 41 | Shough 260 · Cousins 220 |
| KC at MIA | Sun 1:00 | 45.5 | 44.0 | Under 45.5 | +1.5 | Low | KC 41, 63 · MIA 40, 48 | Mahomes 240 · Willis 180 |
| LAC at BUF | Sun 1:00 | 50.5 | 51.0 | Over 50.5 | +0.5 | Low | LAC 40, 40 · BUF 67, 72 | Herbert 230 · Allen 240 |
Listed line versus season yards-per-game, then taxed for opponent unit, game script, and injuries. Biggest edges are pace gaps that also match the side or total we already like.
Kenneth Walker is at 145 rush yards per game. The book hung 84 against Miami, in a game we expect Kansas City to lead. That is the cleanest prop on the board — a 61-yard gap with the script on his side.
KC at MIA · Sun 1:00 · High
324 yards per game and only asked for 230 at Cleveland. Loudest gap on the pass board. The 59-point week 1 is noise; 34 at Atlanta was not.
Olave is 134 per game on an 80. Kincaid is 112.5 on a 60 against a Chargers secondary missing Molden. Adams Over 71 is the Nacua-out tax.
| Player | Mkt | Line | Pace | Play | Gap | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III · KC vs MIA | Rush | 84 | 145 | Over 84 | +61 | High |
| Bryce Young · CAR at CLE | Pass | 230 | 324 | Over 230 | +94 | High |
| Chris Olave · NO vs LV | Rec | 80 | 134 | Over 80 | +54 | High |
| Dalton Kincaid · BUF vs LAC | Rec | 60 | 112.5 | Over 60 | +52.5 | High |
| Davante Adams · LAR at DEN | Rec | 71 | 110.5 | Over 71 | +39.5 | High |
| TreVeyon Henderson · NE at JAX | Rush | 43 | 76 | Over 43 | +33 | High |
| Jacoby Brissett · ARI at SF | Pass | 230 | 186 | Under 230 | +44 | High |
| Saquon Barkley · PHI at CHI | Rush | 73 | 46 | Under 73 | +27 | High |
| C.J. Stroud · HOU at IND | Pass | 240 | 313.5 | Over 240 | +73.5 | Med |
| Jalen Coker · CAR at CLE | Rec | 60 | 102 | Over 60 | +42 | Med |
| Malik Nabers · NYG vs TEN | Rec | 60 | 35 | Under 60 | +25 | Med |
| Kyle Monangai · CHI vs PHI | Rush | 40 | 73.5 | Over 40 | +33.5 | Med |
| Derrick Henry · BAL vs DAL | Rush | 91 | 106 | Over 91 | +15 | Med |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA at WAS | Rec | 100 | 138.5 | Over 100 | +38.5 | Med |
| Quinshon Judkins · CLE vs CAR | Rush | 62 | 27 | Under 62 | +35 | Med |
| Travis Kelce · KC at MIA | Rec | 52 | 86 | Over 52 | +34 | Med |
| D'Andre Swift · CHI vs PHI | Rush | 60 | 84.5 | Over 60 | +24.5 | Med |
| Ja'Marr Chase · CIN at PIT | Rec | 80 | 43.5 | Under 80 | +36.5 | Low |
No anytime-TD board in the folder. This is usage plus the sides and totals we already like — a bonus list, not a priced number.
4 rushing TDs. Dallas has allowed 173.5 rush yards per game.
4 rushing TDs. Colts games have totaled 64 and 63.
145 rush yards per game in a likely script against Miami.
Already a 192-yard game. Chargers line is wrecked.
5 passing TDs and a rushing line at home against L.A.
4 receiving TDs. Washington is without Daniels.
2 TDs already. Nacua is out. Red-zone alpha.
2 TDs, 204 yards, Young at 230.
268 yards through two games. Shough is 260.
3 rushing TDs. Bagent under center is a run script.
Net points per game from the ESPN team tables, shrunk toward average because n=2. San Francisco (+21), Seattle (+13.5), and Kansas City (+12) sit at the top. Miami (−18), the Chargers (−12), and Indianapolis (−10.5) sit at the bottom.
Daniels out in Washington. Dart on IR in New York. Nacua missing from the Rams receiving sheet. Collins out in Houston. Bagent listed at 180 in Chicago, not Williams. Those move the fair line more than a questionable guard.
Sides: power gap plus 2.2 home-field, except Rio (0). Totals: combined scoring shrunk toward 44, then checked against each team’s own week 1–2 combined scores and this morning’s QB pass-yard lines.
Source: Yahoo week-3 lines and week 1–2 finals, ESPN 2026 team offense/defense, ESPN injury reports, pass-yard and receiving props captured Sep 27, 2026 8:16–8:25 AM, rushing props 8:39–8:41 AM. Fair numbers are a transformation of those inputs, not a closing line. Unlisted page — not linked from the homepage.