Pick Calculator

Understanding the numbers

Hit rate

Our estimated chance that your selected spread or total will win.

For example, a 65% hit rate means our model expects that outcome to win about 65 times out of 100 in similar situations. It's an estimate, not a guarantee.

If the line is right

What the hit rate would look like if the sportsbook's main line were an accurate prediction.

Compare this with our estimated hit rate to see how our model's outlook differs from the market.

Price

The odds offered by the sportsbook for your selected line.

For example, -110 means you would need to risk $110 to profit $100. The price tells you what the bet costs, not how likely it is to win.

Break-even

The win rate the price needs before the bet is a wash. A -110 price breaks even near 52.4%. Compare that with the hit rate.

Expected value

The average return if the hit rate is right and the same bet were repeated. A positive number means the hit rate is higher than the price implies. It is not money won.

Push

The chance your bet ends in a tie against the selected line, meaning your stake is returned.

For example, if you bet on a team at -6 and it wins by exactly 6 points, that's a push. Spreads ending in .5 can't push.

Player props

Bets based on an individual player's performance, such as points, rebounds, or assists.

We show available sportsbook lines and prices, but hit-rate predictions won't appear until our player-prop models are ready.